Forex News

AUD traders heads up – on Tuesday evening the Australian budget is announced

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Tuesday evening local time, at approximately 7.30pm Sydney time (this is 0830 GMT)

I posted on Monday on what to expect for growth forecasts:

Via Westpac now, some forecasts:

  • for 2022/23, we anticipate that the October Budget will forecast a widening of the deficit to $45bn, 1.9% of GDP impacted by upward pressure on expenses. That would still be $32.9bn below PEFO.
  • From 2023/24, the budget deficit profile is likely to deteriorate – increasing each year and being above that in PEFO. This reflects the crimping of revenue from the emerging economic slowdown and upward pressure on expenses (from higher inflation, rising interest rates and escalating program cost).

Via NAB:

  • some of the key forecasts (GDP growth for 2023/24 expected at 1.5% down from an expected 3.25% this financial year), while the inflation rate is seen easing to 3.5% in 2023/24 (slightly higher than the RBA’s 3.3% forecast in August)

For AUD the focus is on global developments though. AUD/USD was lifted by expectations for slowing rate hikes ahead from the Federal Reserve, but the new leadership in China is a weight.