Forex News

Australian headline CPI 1.8% q/q (expected 1.6%)

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AUD has popped a little higher on the higher-than-expected inflation data

The ‘trimmed mean’ is a core measure – the RBA target band for core inflation is 2 to 3 %.

Another of the core measures is the weighted median that has come in at +1.4% q/q and 5% y/y.

Expectations are for the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise its cash rate by 25bp next week, the meeting is November 1.

This hotter-than-expected data today will increase the prospects of a 50bp rate hike instead. Given the RBA has said they expect inflation to get worse before it gets better I suspect this print today is not enough to trigger them to +50bp next week. But I wouldn’t bet the farm on that. This is an ugly print, the trimmed mean at 1.8% q/q is a decent-sized jump.The RBA meet on November 1 and then again on December 6, two 25bp hikes are baked in at least. The meeting following December is in February (the RBA does not meet in January).