The euro is having itself a nice day, rising 30 pips to 1.0765 and near a session high. The markets are pricing a 76% chance of a 50 bps hike from the ECB on Feb 2. That’s dipped from earlier this week.
There is not much going on on the FX market today besides the yen and Swiss franc being weaker. Tomorrow’s U.S. CPI report and after that, there is not much to do. Tomorrow’s economic data consist of the EIA’s weekly oil inventory data, which is the only other item on.
Today, bond markets are being bought Headers: Villeroy of the ECB has declared that rates will be pushed higher in the future Bond markets are being bought today Domestic flights are being grounded by a malfunctioning IT bond markets are being bought today Domestic flights are being grounded by a.
China’s yuan not far from a 4 month high – policy support, COVID recovery, seasonal demand China to pause costly chip investments as Covid strains budget PBOC Guangzhou branch reportedly guides banks to provide offshore financing to developers ICYMI – China’s Finance Minister reiterated plans to appropriately expand fiscal spending.
Prelim 46.2 Prior 47.7 Lowest since May 2020 Firms hiked their selling prices at the softest pace for just over two years Lower prices for some inputs such as metals and fuel led to the slowest uptick in cost burdens since July 2020 The decrease in new orders was steep.
The first trading day of the year highlights a few opportunities in the market this year. I’m skeptical that price action this early is telling but some news items are notable and fit into themes I highlighted in the video below. 1) China reopening The China PMI today was awful.
The US dollar is sizzling today even as Treasury yields fall. It’s a reminder that intermarket correlations don’t matter on Day 1 as flow-driven trade dominates. The rally in the dollar speaks only to demand for liquidity and the world’s reserve currency — I wouldn’t take it as any kind.
After the Fed delivered a more hawkish than expected stance, the market sold off pretty heavily. The Fed once again had to repeat to the market that they are solely focused on bringing inflation back to their 2% target and they are ready to go above market expectations and risk.