- In the near term, China faces significant challenges in reviving its growth through private consumption.
- On Thursday, US President Biden will be making a speech following the US inflation report.
- Goldman Sachs no longer anticipates a recession in the Eurozone in 2023.
- China’s state planner stated that they would be able to keep prices stable this year.
- The US inflation report on Thursday will offer a hint as to whether the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates by 25 or 50 basis points in February.
- In December, China’s inflation data showed that the Consumer Price Index was 1.8% year-on-year and the Producer Price Index was -0.7% year-on-year.
- Credit Agricole believes that the risks in the Eurozone are still leaning to the downside.
- The People’s Bank of China set the US Dollar/Chinese Yuan exchange rate for today at 6.7680, falling short of the forecast at 6.7698.
- Australia’s November trade data showed imports declining, with exports remaining relatively unchanged.
- In the UK, the construction sector is suffering due to low interest rates.
- The US Dollar/Japanese Yen rate continued to drop below 132.00 following rumors that the Bank of Japan would be conducting a review.
- A US Treasury official reported that Russian oil revenues have dropped due to a price cap.
- A Fed insider claimed that the Fed’s research has revealed that job growth isn’t as strong as originally thought.
- New Zealand’s November building permit data increased by 7%, recovering from a 10.7% decrease in the prior month.
- Goldman Sachs believes that Brent oil prices could reach $110 by the third quarter of 2023 as China reopens.
- Boston Fed’s Collins has expressed her preference for a 25 basis point rate hike in February, rather than the speculated 50.
- Thursday, 12 January 2023 will be the date for the trade ideas thread.
- The FX news wrap for the American markets stated that the US Dollar remained steady, while risk trades have been rising ahead of the CPI report.
- The Nasdaq closed higher for a fourth consecutive day.
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The Bank of Japan’s policy meeting is scheduled for the 17th and 18th of January. Yomiuri (Japan media) has reported that the Bank may consider taking steps to rectify any distortions to the yield curve as a result of their quantitative easing. In December, the Bank made a minor adjustment to the yield curve control program, allowing 10-year Japanese Government Bonds to trade up to a 0.5% yield from the previous 0.25% cap. This minor adjustment to the program had a major impact, due to Governor Kuroda’s continual denial of any changes being considered until the announcement.
This announcement today led to a sharp drop in the USD/JPY pair, from its peak of 132.40 to its nadir of 131.60.
In the forex market, wide fluctuations in currency exchange rates were restricted to minor changes, with the U.S. dollar showing some weakness. Speculators are waiting for the U.S. Consumer Price Index report, due out later today. See the posts above for further details.
In Asian regions, stock markets are showing a varied performance.
- The Nikkei 225 in Japan remained level.
- Shanghai Composite down 0.2% for China
- The Hang Seng in Hong Kong has declined by 0.5%.
- The KOSPI index in South Korea is up by 0.3%.
- The S&P/ASX 200 in Australia rose by 1.2%.
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The USD/JPY currency pair is up, with reports of a new Bank of Japan Governor causing speculation.