Analysis of Tuesday’s deals:
30M chart of the EUR/USD pair
The EUR/USD currency pair tried to start a new round of upward movement on Tuesday, but fell in the afternoon. The fall of the pair, that is, the growth of the US dollar, was provoked exclusively by US statistics, which we will now analyze. We previously said that the market’s response to the reports on business activity in the US manufacturing sector could provoke a reaction. And so it happened. The meanings of these reports were very ambiguous. The S&P dropped to 50.4 from 52 a month earlier. The ISM dropped to 50.2 from 50.9 a month earlier. The forecasts were even lower, so we can say that the indices came out stronger than expected. Nevertheless, a fall was recorded in both cases, that is, aggravating the situation. Therefore, we do not quite understand the market’s response in the form of long positions on the dollar. However, we should not forget that the results of the Federal Reserve meeting will be announced on Wednesday, at which the rate will rise again by 0.75%. Perhaps, due to a combination of factors, the dollar has risen in price on Tuesday. As for the technical picture, everything is logical. A few days ago, the price settled below the ascending trend line, so now we are seeing a predominantly downward movement.
5M chart of the EUR/USD pair
In regards to Tuesday’s trading signals on the 5-minute timeframe, everything was not good. The first signal was formed only at the US trading session. The price did not approach important levels in the European session. Nevertheless, even the signal from the US session could be worked out and you could earn some money. The price overcame the level of 0.9895, afterwards it continued to fall. It went down 15 points exactly, so Stop Loss should have been placed at breakeven for this trade. The position could be closed manually in the late afternoon with a profit of 15-20 points. Not much, but better than nothing.
How to trade on Wednesday:
The pair has settled below the trend line on the 30-minute timeframe, so we expect the fall to continue. The Fed rate hike should provoke the strengthening of the US currency and it is quite possible that the market is already working out this event “in advance”. However, when the results of the meeting are announced on Wednesday, the reaction may be different. On the 5-minute TF, it is recommended to trade at the levels of 0.9709, 0.9756, 0.9807, 0.9895, 0.9977, 1.0020-1.0034, 1.0093. When passing 15 points in the right direction, you should set Stop Loss to breakeven. The European Union will publish an index of business activity in the manufacturing sector, and we have the ADP report on changes in the number of employees in the private sector (similar to NonFarm Payrolls) in the US. These two reports can slightly affect the pair’s movement during the day. The results of the Fed meeting will be announced late in the evening, so novice players will have to leave the market before that time.
Basic rules of the trading system:
1) The signal strength is calculated by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or overcome the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
2) If two or more positions were opened near a certain level based on false signals (which did not trigger Take Profit or the nearest target level), then all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.
3) In a flat, any pair can form a lot of false signals or not form them at all. But in any case, at the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4) Trade positions are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the US one, when all positions must be closed manually.
5) On the 30-minute TF, using signals from the MACD indicator, you can trade only if there is good volatility and a trend, which is confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.
6) If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 points), then they should be considered as an area of support or resistance.
On the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).
Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com