Analysis of Tuesday’s deals:
30M chart of the GBP/USD pair
The GBP/USD pair also had a boring European session on Tuesday and a crazy US one. Traders should have gotten used to the fact that the movements during the US session are much more active. However, what they were connected with on Tuesday is quite difficult to say. We could still assume that the euro showed growth due to the upcoming European Central Bank meeting this Thursday. Theoretically, it could pull the pound up with it. But, you see, it turns out to be too long a chain of events that have no direct relationship to each other. The ECB meeting is only on Thursday, and Tuesday is too early for the market to work out its results “in advance”. Also, we do not believe that the appointment of Rishi Sunak as prime minister of Great Britain helped the pound to rise. In this case, it is no longer clear why the euro, to which Sunak has nothing to do, grew. Thus, we can conclude that the US dollar fell on Tuesday, and the euro and the pound did not rise. The dollar could fall for one reason. Both pairs are in a very oversold state when looking at the higher timeframes, which means they can correct up from time to time for no reason.
5M chart of the GBP/USD pair
The first trading signal on the 5-minute timeframe was formed only during the US trading session, so novice traders missed a good half of the upward movement, since the price did not even approach any of the levels in the European session. Overcoming the level of 1.1356 made it possible to open long positions. Subsequently, the level of 1.1443 was also overcome, and there was a rebound from the level of 1.1479. Long positions should have been closed at this moment, the profit on them could be about 90 points, which is a very, very good result. It was no longer necessary to work out the sell signal, since a good level of profit was received on the first transaction, and the signal itself was formed rather late. After a “boring Monday”, the pound again showed hyper volatility almost out of the blue, but this only makes traders feel better. Let the pair trade in a volatile and trendy manner rather than stay in one place.
How to trade on Wednesday:
The pound/dollar pair temporarily resumed its upward movement on the 30-minute TF, but it’s too early to rejoice, tomorrow or the day after tomorrow we may well see a new fall. It makes no sense to rebuild the trend line, because it has already lost its relevance twice. There is no sense in a trend line that needs to be rebuilt three times. On the 5-minute TF on Wednesday it is recommended to trade at the levels 1.1200-1.1211-1.1236, 1.1356, 1.1443, 1.1479, 1.1550, 1.1608, 1.1648, 1.1716. When the price passes after opening a position in the right direction for 20 points, Stop Loss should be set to breakeven. There are no important events scheduled for Wednesday in the UK and the US, so there will again be nothing to react to. Nevertheless, the pound volatility remains quite high, and movements can be almost anything. Today there was a trend, tomorrow there may be a “swing”.
Basic rules of the trading system:
1) The signal strength is calculated by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or overcome the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
2) If two or more positions were opened near a certain level based on false signals (which did not trigger Take Profit or the nearest target level), then all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.
3) In a flat, any pair can form a lot of false signals or not form them at all. But in any case, at the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4) Trade positions are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the US one, when all positions must be closed manually.
5) On the 30-minute TF, using signals from the MACD indicator, you can trade only if there is good volatility and a trend, which is confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.
6) If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 points), then they should be considered as an area of support or resistance.
On the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).
Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com