Central Banks Forex Market Intelligence News

ISM US October services PMI 54.4 vs 55.5 expected

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  • Lowest since May 2020
  • Prior was 56.7


Prices paid 70.7 vs. 68.7 last month
Employment 49.1 vs. 53.0 last month
New orders 56.5 vs. 60.6 last month
Supplier deliveries 56.2 vs. 53.9 last month
Inventories 46.4 vs. 44.1 last month
Backlog of orders 52.2 vs. 52.5 last month
New export orders 47.7 vs. 65.1 last month
Imports 50.4 vs. 51.3 last month

Look at that drop in ‘new export orders’. There are increasingly-widespread indications that the strong US dollar is biting into trade.

There’s clearly a turn lower in this survey but the Fed won’t like that bump in prices paid.

Comments in the report:

  • “Despite the negative inflation news, higher gas prices and concerns of a recession, our restaurant sales have been resilient during what is typically a seasonal slump. We are positive to 2019 (pre-coronavirus pandemic), and traffic is down only about 4 percent, so it’s recovering. Staffing and supply chain challenges are improving, (and we are) seeing some decline in key commodities.” [Accommodation & Food Services]
  • “Business remains tepid. We have a general concern that sales volumes are trending down as buyers communicate that they’re planning to buy only what they need for immediate sales.” [Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting]
  • “Customers are starting to delay projects and/or entering smaller-scale scopes of work. We believe this is a continuation of an uncertain economic environment.” [Construction]
  • “There are supply chain challenges for some paper- and tech-related products.” [Educational Services]
  • “Shortages and delays stabilizing. Labor availability and patient volume continue to be a challenge.” [Health Care & Social Assistance]
  • “Electronic components lead times are becoming longer, pushing out almost a year. Not seeing much change in pricing based on inflation pressures at this point, but we expect to see changes after the first of the year. Business volume remains strong.” [Other Services]
  • “As we prepare for a recession, our stakeholders, clients and vendors are all tightening their belts and reducing new spend. We are focusing on strategic renewals and expanding only where necessary with our closest vendor partners for our most critical tech projects.” [Professional, Scientific & Technical Services]
  • “Prices seem to continue increasing for commodities, including plumbing, flooring materials, floor adhesives, door locks, and bedroom and bathroom doors. Delays in delivery have increased after leveling off in the middle of the year.” [Real Estate, Rental & Leasing]
  • “We are in the final preparations for a successful holiday, despite lower sales. Labor is more available this year, and supply chain delays seem caught up for now.” [Retail Trade]
  • “It has become more challenging to maintain our level of service, due to increased demand, extended supplier lead times and the hyper-competitive employment market.” [Transportation & Warehousing]
  • “We are experiencing a bullwhip of oversupply on some goods … while still desperately short on other goods. The market is recovering very inconsistently.” [Wholesale Trade]