Polls Indicate a Rebound of China’s GDP Growth to 4.9% in the Coming Year

Polls Indicate a Rebound of China's GDP Growth to 4.9% in the Coming Year

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  • A prediction for 2022 GDP growth has been lowered to 2.8%, a decrease from the 3.2% estimated in October
  • The fourth quarter of 2022 is expected to show an annual GDP growth of 1.8%, which is lower than the 3.9% in the third quarter
  • The GDP growth projection for 2023 was also slightly lowered, from 5.0% to 4.9%

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Economist’s prognostication for China’s economic situation is one of a mild recovery in the coming year, with an anticipated 5.0% growth rate in 2024. Two points of note from those surveyed included:

According to UBS, economic activities and consumption should experience a strong recovery from March-April due to the post-COVID re-opening and the use of excess savings. Nonetheless, the absence of sizeable income and consumption assistance could constrain the extent of the rebound.

Macquarie anticipates that economic policy will become more beneficial in 2023, leading to a credit growth of 11 to 12%, compared to the 9.6% projected for 2022. This is attributed to the guidance given to banks and an increase in credit requests. Additionally, the fiscal policy is expected to become more expansive with a record allotment for local government special bonds.

According to the survey, it is expected that the rate of inflation in China will increase to 2.3% by the next year and then remain stable in 2024.

Andrew Johnson is a seasoned journalist with a keen interest in the commodity market. He is a regular contributor to, where he covers the latest news, trends, and analysis related to the commodity industry. With years of experience under his belt, Andrew has established himself as a reliable source of information on the global commodity market.